As I pack my bags and head to Thailand on vacation (for Forex research purposes … yeah right), I thought it would be advisable to blog about the strength of the Thai baht. Boost bat was nothing reaches an incredible and as often happens in the Forex market, rising currency becomes a self-fulfilling. He evaluated 8.5% last year en route to a 13-year-old high, and some analysts predict that this is only the beginning.
Last time I went to Thailand in 2004, approximately 40 baht trade USD/THB, compared with a rate of 30.It's pretty incredible, if you believe that over time, Thailand experienced military coup and related political instability, the financial crisis, which is particularly serious in the world, emerging market currencies and even if you chart performance baht against USD, will have only the faintest idea what each of these crises.
Of course financial crisis exacted a heavy toll on Thai financial markets and the economy of Thailand. Prices of shares and bonds lurched down as foreign investors moved in cash to the so-called safe haven currencies, such as the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, among the first to emerge from recession, expansion in 2009 and 2010, the economy is surging in Thailand. "Compared to the previous year, GDP grew by 9.1% while the economy grew 10.6% in the first half of the year" according to the most recent data.Tourism, one of the country's pillar industries, already has recovered 23, together with the export and consumption forecast BY THE IMF and the Thai Government to drive the economy forward 7-7.5% in 2010 is expected to increase projected exports of 27%. Agree that the increase would have been even more impressive (maybe 1-2% above) if not politcal protests, which were finally quelled in May this year.
Despite concerns about the risk and volatility of foreign investors once again pouring money in Thailand at a record pace.More than $ 1.4 billion had been injected with prospe only a year after the date. As a result of "Thailand benchmark SET index has rebounded30% since Jun ... helping send SET to its highest level since November 1996." Capital flows have also caused by Thai interest rates that are (currently 1.75%), even while in industrialized countries have remained flat at this point ' money in Thailand are well in excess of cash, which remains low because of sustained import restrictions on capital outflows, Thai. This imbalance is reflected in the Central Bank of Thailand forex reserves, which recently topped $ 150 billion, more than 50% of the GDP.
Anticipation builds that Thailand will use some of their reserves in an attempt to stop or even reverse the baht.After the intervention of last week the Bank of Japan such intervention is not only how to be more appropriate, but also more necessary.Under pressure from the Prime Minister of the Central Bank convened at least one emergency meeting to determine the best course of action so far can only accept members, defuse restrictions on capital and lending standards for exporters.
For what it's worth, Thailand's richest man called CB does not work: "probably fruitless efforts, as well as foreign capital is expected to continuously flooding in Thailand from healthy economic recovery and growth of exports. baht per se should be an even stronger policy will remain in Thailand."It is supported by the facts that show that Thai exports held smoothly despite the rise in bat, though perhaps just because other Asian currencies grew up in a comparable speed.
If other central banks have stepped up their intervention (Deutsche Bank maintained through below that all "Asian central banks for many years, were more or less continuously on the market," stabilization "their currencies, but with a clear bias towards prevention of depreciation of USD in this region") Bank of Thailand is probably will have no choice but to follow their example.
Otherwise it may not be long before bath cleanses THB 30 USD my next post baht in 2015 will probably be similar lamentation ...
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