Life just a little easier if EUR/USD, the most important forex pairs and French currency markets, you can simply choose the direction and stick to it. He Dove during financial crisis only surge recovery clear fell during the crisis of the sovereign debt grew up in paradigm, then fell as risk appetite is waning, only to rise again in September, from high 5 months.
There are several factors that currently form the basis of euro strength that is generally explained by the fact that the risk of "by" at the moment, and markets, moving away from the so-called safe haven currency and back to the investment growth. Of course, you can change tomorrow (or even 5 minutes!), but at this point the risk appetite and the euro symbolizes the risk.Never mind, ironically it is the growth in the EU is projected to remain 1.8% for the year, while the rest of the world (row) GDP is likely to be Top 5% of all that matters is compared against the dollar (and Yen, pound, Franc, to a lesser extent) the euro is accepted as currency risk.
The euro also helped Cause the current "currency war" that heats last week in Japan comes into play. In principle, the central banks around the world now compete with each other to devalue their currencies.In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to stay away (in favor of tax savings), which leads to (or rather, all other currencies down) to make matters worse, "THE FED U.S. shows this summer that he can facilitate further… monetary policy, is often seen as printing money at the pump to the economy." As a result of the "euro looks set to keep on climbing in the trend, which looks more entrenched.
Of course there are those who argue that the recent surge of confidence in the economy of the euro represents the euro area and EU prospects for debt settlement. In the end the majority of the members of the euro will help to reduce the budget deficit in 2010 and auctions of new bonds again exceeded. On the other hand the interest rates for pigs (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) have grown by multi-year highs, finally, the investors are trying to make a serious effort at default feature.
In addition almost do not function in the credit markets in the EU and major agencies are still dependent on THE ECB'S loans to finance. Finally, it should not be forgotten that the sole cause of the crisis was caused by the massive support (140 billion euros), extended to Greece. When this program is due to expire in less than three years, will be subject to financial constraints, Greece (other pigs) and new (temporary) you will be offered.
As every analyst, none EU financial difficulties were resolved. EU Member States are adept at addressing certainly acute crises and the ECB certainly deserves credit for the maintenance of functioning of credit markets, but no one offers a viable solution to recover the financial and economic status of member countries.Devaluation of the currency is impossible.Prohibited sovereign defaults.This leaves the reductions in wages and productivity, as only two ways to balance.The former can be carried out through inflation, but THE ECB seems to want to allow this to happen.
For better or worse it seems to be pushed these problems down the road, and if all goes according to plan, they should be reviewed for 2-3 years then, now, the euro is likely to be safe and can even thrive. short positions in EUR being unwound furious speed and data indicate that there are still plenty of opportunities for further unwinding. inflation remains subdued, economic growth is stable and the ECB has not expressed any objection of the growth of the euro while I this bullishness with the caveat that "traders willing to taste euro less from time to time the slightest News or rumor downgrading of the sovereign in the euro zone or of the Bank's ratings, the overall trend euro is now definitely up.
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