Kondratiev waves developed by Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev (1892-1930) in Agricultural College and Business Research Institute in Moscow. The original investigation period covered the great economic time: the USA, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. He analysed values, interest rates, wages and external trade among others. He monitored data about the consumption of coal, iron, and lead. The adjustment figures began to allow for changes in population and is a moving average of nine years to remove statistical noise. Then is that Kondratiev noticed the presence of a wave of nine years, but could not justify its presence as believed something concrete to capitalism. This was supposed to be due to comfort, with the exception of capital goods, but he admitted the lack of reliable statistical data backing this statement.
Kondratiev waves (or K-waves) differ in rhythm from 45 to 60 years. Within these waves can define further Kondratiev waves, or cycles in the short term:
The Kitchin short waves, with an average duration of year 3-5, discovered in waves of 1930Juglar duration 7 to 11 years old, discovered in the circle of 1862Kuznet Medium waves of average life expectancy of 15 and 25 years old, discovered in 1923Kondratiev waves is the longest of them all, as a life of 45 to 60 years old (it was discovered in 1922).
Kondratiev discovered three historic Kondratiev waves over the history:
First wave: growing phase from 1780 to 1790-1810-1881 and a phase of decline from 1810-1810 1844-1851Second wave: growing phase from 1844-1851 to 1870-1875 and a phase of decline from 1870-1875 1890-1896Third wave: started in 1914-1920 growing phase from 1890-1896 1914-1920 and the stage reached in the fall. After the death of Kondratiev, economists found that falls under this phase ended 1947-1948, and that there is a fourth wave: increased from 1947-1948-1973-1980. The current phase of decline began in 1973-1980.Schumpeter (who served as President of the American economic society in the 1950s) was an excellent student of the wave theory and added the Kondratiev wave theory the interdependent waves. On the other hand, others such as Forrester believed independent from any other waves.
As the author himself certainly could not determine the causes for the Kondratiev waves there is a lot of controversy around the causes of their existence. Analyzing periods of economic prosperity, recession, depression and rehabilitation can give us some clues as to their causes.
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